Bitcoin’s Price Outlook: Uncertainty, Halving Aftermath, and Key Levels

Key Highlights

• BTC/USD retraces after hitting $85,000 all-time high
• Fed policy uncertainty and inflation data in focus
• Technical outlook suggests key support/resistance levels for Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been ranging between $83,000 and $85,000 in an attempt to find some stability despite recent geopolitical sentiments. President Trump’s announcement of the 90-day tariff pause has contributed to a bit of steadiness in the markets and has helped reduce fear amongst investors.

Investors have been accumulating bitcoin since it found support around the $74,000 key level. A potential bullish breakout can propel the market to $125,000, meanwhile, a breach of that level can see bearish sentiments to $65,000 support level.

Price Action

This week saw Bitcoin recover from a $75,000 low and gain almost 7%, closing the week at about $85,000, creating some stability despite recent market volatility, thus indicating investor bullish bias. The increase in trading volume indicated spot-driven demand rather than speculation.

Volatility Drivers

• Market Uncertainty – A lot of factors have contributed to high volatility in various risk assets globally in recent times. With inflation in most economies, high interest rates, and recession concerns in major economies globally, BTC has, however, shown resilience, and this indicates investors are slowly starting to consider this as a micro-level instrument that can be managed via risk management.

• Economic Outlook – Following the announcement of President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs, the market globally has experienced some relief, thus easing the pressure on trade wars. This has improved investor sentiment a whole lot as we have seen a major shift to assets resilient to fiat devaluation, with bitcoin positioning as an asset.

This pause has helped position the market for some stability and helped BTC bounce back from $the 75,000 low .

• Crypto-Specific Factors – The increase in bitcoin accumulation has shown genuine investor conviction in BTC. This indicates investors are starting to store bitcoin as a cold storage asset, which signals intentions to hold for the long term. This trend shows institutions are currently accumulating, which reflects a strong control of supply. This organically supported narrative continues to impact bullish tendencies rather than being fueled by excessive leverage.

Bullish vs. Bearish Factors

Bullish Factors

• Policy Optimism: President Trump has encouraged the crypto community by announcing the Bitcoin strategic Reserve, which has increased the enthusiasm towards this digital asset.

Also, the pause in tariffs has reduced tensions amongst investors, which has seen an increase in risk assets globally, and in most cases, these assets benefit from economic turmoil.

• Bitcoin Halving Cycle: In the past ,we have seen bitcoin bullish price action 6 – 12 months post-halving. April 2024 also aligns with previous cycles and could potentially see new all-time highs by Q2-Q3 if the cycle holds 

• Institutional Holdings: We have seen increasing interest from big Institutional / Corporate organizations like BlackRock’s BTC ETF showing support in bitcoin as an asset. Also, a few other organizations have joined the list of long-term holders over the past few days, as holdings have increased to over 260,000 BTC

Bearish Factors

• Profit Taking: Short-term holders have been doing a lot of profit taking from the 80k region as a few whale wallets have shown distribution as well as USDT outflows, which signals realized gains 

• Increase in macro risks: As recession looms, an increase in geopolitical tensions as well as inflation globally , all of this threatens risky markets like BTC and could potentially whisk away capital from speculative assets

• Reduction in Sentiments: There has lately been a spike in exchange inflows, which can lead to huge selling pressure

Market Balance

Over  the weekend, we saw the market recover technically, as well as bullish bias backed by policy signals and macroeconomic stability following the pause on tariffs, but a macro drop could see short-term sells in play

Key Events and Market Reactions

1. Tariff Pause

There has been a pause to the tariff targeting Chinese goods for 90 days. This has eased the tension amongst an emerging trade war, and this has improved investor sentiments on BTC as it is seen more as a micro-sensitive asset. This might also give room for algo buys on BTC.

2. GameStop’s BTC bet

Gamestop has recently announced that they are investing $1.3 billion in acquiring Bitcoin, which positions BTC as a treasury asset. Despite this boost the market still has a speculative sentiment on corporate involvement in this asset class

3. Defi Legislation Reversal

President Trump has reversed the Defi tax bill signed by the previous administration. This would leave more room for an innovation-friendly environment, as there is more clarity for liquidity providers.

This caused a spike in BTC and also created momentum for a robust crypto framework. This has urged an increase in capital allocation for Defi projects 

Technical Overview for BTC/USD

BTC has been in a ranging spot from the key level $75,000 support to the $85,000 resistance level, with overall long-term bias being bullish and short-term being bearish 

Bullish Scenario

Trigger:

• If price respects breaks out of channel and retests the key level $85,000
• We also need to see the price break the channel and break above the $89,000 key level to trigger more buys
• A failure to break above the channel can lead to a price reversal 

Target:
      –   If price breaks $85,000 resistance level next target for the buyers would be the psychological level of $89,000

Bearish Scenario

Trigger:

• If price rejects and closes below $85,000 key level, then we would seek more sells to the downside
• Also, if the market respects bearish sentiments within the channel would give more confirmation for sells to go back to $75,000
• A closure below $75,000 can give more confirmation to the downside

Target:
      –   $67,000 psychological and technical level is the next target 

Summary and Week Ahead

Bitcoin bounced back from a weekly low, showing resilience amidst a lot of macro sentiments ranging from the tariff pause to the Fed’s rate hike. All of this has helped absorb liquidity and gain momentum for buys, and a break above $85,000 can create room for more buys 

We should also consider a few factors that can shape the next move:

• CPI and retail sales data 
• Institutional flows
• Altcoin and Defi sentiments 
• Market volatility

Trading Strategy

1. Swing Trading: A close above $85,000 can see the target level $95,000, while a respected bearish flow can see the market reverse to $75,000
2. Risk Management: Keep a close eye on tariff news, Fed updates, and risk only 1-2% of your portfolio per trade