Bitcoin has staged a notable rebound in recent trading sessions, stabilizing in the mid-$60,000 range after experiencing one of the sharpest selloffs of the 2026 cycle. The world's largest cryptocurrency collapsed from nearly $126,000 in October to lows around $59,000-$60,000 in early February, but recent price action suggests a potential floor may be forming. With BTC currently trading near $68,000 on February 26, 2026, market participants are closely watching whether this stabilization can hold and drive Bitcoin toward resistance levels near $71,000-$73,000, or if rejection could trigger another leg down toward $64,000 support.[1][2][5]
Understanding The Recent Selloff
The dramatic decline from October's highs represents a 47.5% peak-to-trough drawdown, one of the most significant moves of this crypto cycle.[3] However, what makes this particular selloff distinct from previous bear markets is the mechanism driving it. Rather than a single panic capitalization event or a catastrophic liquidation cascade, the recent decline has been characterized by a gradual unwind of leverage across the market.[3] Approximately $3 to $4 billion in total liquidations occurred across crypto markets over the past week, with an estimated $2 to $2.5 billion concentrated in Bitcoin futures—meaningful but not climactic.[3]
Multiple factors contributed to the selloff. Macroeconomic headwinds, including tighter monetary policy expectations, institutional outflows through Bitcoin ETFs, and forced liquidations from leveraged positions all played roles in the decline.[1] Additionally, weakness in the artificial intelligence trade spilled into cryptocurrency markets, particularly affecting Bitcoin miners pursuing AI and high-performance computing strategies, forcing them to sell Bitcoin to support balance sheets.[3] This combination of technical factors and thematic weakness created a self-reinforcing downward spiral that reached its nadir in mid-February.
Technical Levels And Resistance Zones
Bitcoin's current positioning relative to key technical indicators presents a mixed picture of both extreme stress and potential stabilization signals. The asset is currently trading -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average—a level not observed at any point in the past 10 years, including during COVID-19 or the FTX collapse.[3] This extreme reading suggests that while price action has been severe, the technical foundation has not experienced structural failure typical of previous bear market capitulations.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin faces critical resistance levels that will determine the near-term trajectory. Resistance exists at $72,000-$73,000, where rejection could signal weakness and potentially trigger a retest of support near $64,000.[2] Below that, key support levels exist at $62,500 and the psychological $60,000 level. Some analysts suggest Bitcoin could revisit even lower levels near $55,000 in March before a final capitulation bottom forms, while others point to the extreme distance-from-trend reading as evidence that much of the downside has already been absorbed.[4]
Market Structure Remains Intact Despite Pain
A critical insight from the recent action is that despite the sharp price decline, market structure has remained relatively orderly. The 90-day realized volatility currently sits near 38, roughly half the levels observed during the 2022 bear market when realized volatility exceeded 70.[3] This combination of a deep price drawdown with materially lower volatility than prior bear cycles suggests that significant downside risk has already been absorbed, and relative value dynamics may begin asserting themselves.
Futures open interest has actually been rising in recent days, moving to $45 billion—its highest level since February 21—indicating that some market participants view current levels as attractive for accumulation.[2] Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows on recent trading days despite shedding billions in assets over the past months, suggesting institutional buyers may be deploying capital at these discounted valuations.
What Comes Next: Conflicting Signals
Artificial intelligence models remain sharply divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. Claude Sonnet projects a bullish 7.44% rally targeting $82,500, while Gemini and ChatGPT suggest bearish scenarios with targets at $72,500 and $75,000 respectively.[1] This disagreement among AI models reflects elevated uncertainty regarding macro policy, institutional positioning, and market liquidity—but it also suggests the market has not reached clear consensus on direction.
Key takeaway for traders: If Bitcoin can hold above $72,000-$73,000 resistance with conviction, it could establish a higher low and begin a stabilization phase. Conversely, rejection at these levels and a breakdown below $64,000 would suggest the capitulation phase may extend into March toward the $55,000 levels cited by some technical analysts.
Positioning For Opportunities Ahead
The extreme technical readings combined with orderly price action suggest Bitcoin's risk-reward profile may be shifting in favor of buyers who missed the spike down or who have conviction in longer-term recovery. However, any position sizing should account for the reality that additional weakness toward $55,000-$60,000 remains possible before a decisive recovery takes hold.
For SimFi traders, the current environment presents defined risk opportunities, particularly around key support and resistance levels where clear entry and exit points can be established.