Market Overview: UK CPI & Labor Data

Hello traders! With a new trading week on the horizon, E8 Funding has prepared a Market Overview for you, designed to keep you informed about the latest and most important events from the economic calendar.

Last’s week spotlight: US CPI Data

At the end of 2023, consumer prices in the US increased by 3.4% over the year, marking a significant advancement in the efforts to control the previously high inflation rates. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (full report) released on Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a measure of the average change in prices for frequently bought goods and services – saw a rise of 0.3% in December compared to the previous month, aligning with forecasts.

Economists suggest that the data from December’s report likely indicates the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates in its upcoming meetings this month and in March, delaying any potential reduction in rates until later in the year.

Monday, January 15th, 2024

Monday kicks off with the release of GDP data from Germany, Europe’s largest and the world’s fifth-largest economy. Following this, an hour later, Eurostat will unveil data on the Eurozone’s international trade.

At 3:30 pm, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to publish its Business Outlook Survey. This report offers valuable insights into the perceptions of Canadian firms regarding the current economic conditions and their future outlook, which in turn influences the country’s GDP and the BoC’s stance on monetary policy adjustments.

Then, just half an hour before midnight, Westpac will announce the Consumer Confidence Change. This index, derived from a survey of over 1,200 Australian households, gives economists a snapshot of the financial health and sentiments of Australian consumers.

Shortly thereafter, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will release data on the Producer Price Index (PPI). This release is particularly significant as it precedes the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Japan, set to be announced later in the week.

Speeches:

Apart from the Eurogroup meeting centered on energy prices, there are no other notable speeches scheduled for Monday.

Tuesday, January 16th, 2024

At 7:00 am, the UK Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release labor market data, including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The current consensus for the Unemployment Rate is at 4.3%, a minor shift from the steady 4.2% seen in the last quarter of 2023.

Then at 10:00 am, the ZEW index data will be published. This index reflects the level of optimism among analysts regarding expected economic developments over the next six months.

In the afternoon, Canada will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The situation appears quite similar to the US data observed last week, with current expectations for annual inflation in Canada at 3.3%, a slight increase from 3.1% in November 2023.

Speeches:

At 4:00 pm, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller is scheduled to give a speech on the Economic Outlook. 

Wednesday, January 17th, 2024

Wednesday begins early with significant data releases from China. At 2:00 am, the National Bureau of Statistics of China is set to announce the annual GDP Growth Rate and Industrial Production, both key indicators. Additionally, updates on the Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales will be provided. The NBS is also scheduled to hold a press conference concurrently.

At 7:00 am, the UK will disclose its Inflation Rate change. If the consensus aligns with the actual data, the UK’s inflation is expected to show a slight decrease to 3.8% from 3.9% in November 2023. While not a market-shifting figure, this represents some improvement for the UK economy.

The afternoon will be bustling with a range of data releases from the US, with the monthly Retail Sales being the most notable. Accompanying this will be data on Industrial and Manufacturing Production, among other indicators.

Speeches:

Michael S. Barr and John Williams of the Federal Reserve are on the schedule for speeches, but these addresses are not anticipated to have an impact on the market.

At 3:15 pm, Christine Lagarde will take part in the Stakeholder Dialogue titled “Town Hall: How to Trust Economics” at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Thursday, January 18th, 2024

Shortly after midnight, at 12:30 am, attention will be drawn to crucial labor market data coming out of Australia, an event many are keenly anticipating.

The morning will be relatively quiet until 1:30 pm, when the US is scheduled to release a series of data from the real estate sector, including Building Permits and Housing Starts. In addition to real estate information, we’ll also receive the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which track new filings for unemployment benefits.

Then, at 11:30 am, the Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications of Japan will announce the change in the annual inflation rate, which had decreased to 2.8% in November 2023.

Speeches:

Raphael Bostic, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is scheduled to give speeches at 12:30 pm and 5:05 pm.

Christine Lagarde is also slated to participate in a dialogue at the World Economic Forum, focusing this time on “Uniting Europe’s Markets.”

Friday, January 19th, 2024

Friday’s schedule begins at 7:00 am with the release of Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data, coinciding with the UK’s monthly Retail Sales data at the same time.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm, Canada will also release its monthly Retail Sales figures.

The trading week concludes with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which assesses consumer attitudes about their own financial situation, as well as their short-term and long-term outlook for the general economy. Concurrently, data on Existing Home Sales in the United States will also be released.

Speeches:

The most significant and potentially insightful event on Friday is Christine Lagarde’s third appearance at the World Economic Forum, where she will discuss “The Global Economic Outlook.”

E8X Dashboard

Stay ahead of key economic events and data releases with our E8X Dashboard. It’s all there under the Economic Calendar tab, offering a user-friendly interface for your convenience.